Airlines are shifting more and more space to premium seating. Great if you have the dollars… or points… or shares. Not-so-great if you’re trying to forecast future aircraft needs.

Why?

Because aviation supply and demand have long been calculated in seats. How many seats depart and go how far (ASKs), how many passengers in how many seats go how far (RPKs). Whatever your flavor, the measurement has been seat-driven.

Why is this a problem? Because the grumpy person crammed into seat 61E counts the same as Mr. Lie-Flat with champagne, an eye mask, and pajamas in 1A. A seat is a seat is a seat. From that perspective, traffic is simply that seat multiplied by a load factor - regardless of whether the seat was filled by a full J-class fare, an economy fare, or a non-rev looking for a way (any way) home.

As easy as it may be to criticize such an approach, it’s necessary from a macro perspective. In order to forecast overall travel demand, GDP remains the best indicator, and that correlates very well to ASKs (notice I didn’t say RPKs, but that’s a controversial take for another newsletter).

The problem today is that large aircraft are trading in the seats for the suites. When we look forward 20 years, how much capacity will a 2032-delivery 787-9 bring to the market? If it’s for WestJet, it could be 320 seats. Another 787-9 could be delivered to United in its new 222-seat 78L “swankyliner” configuration. So how do we forecast 787-9 capacity? Is it 320 seats, 222 seats, or somewhere in between? Don’t worry - whatever number you pick will change by 2032 anyway.

You get the picture - a seat is a seat is a seat, except for when it’s not. It’s time to consider the humble square foot.

This week’s chart looks at a sliver of the market - North America’s widebody configurations - and how each is utilizing its twin-aisle square footage. The top of the list doesn’t mean the largest premium seat, nor does it mean the largest premium cabin. It’s purely the average floor space per seat. That includes everything configurable that could hold a seat, largely anything aft of the forward door and galley, all the way back to the aft door and galley. If seats can go there, we call it real estate. That includes seats, galleys, lavatories, aisles, etc. It’s all part of how the airline decides to apportion its seats and amenities.

To give massive credit where credit is due, we’ve been spending a lot of time on the aerolopa.com site understanding how real estate is being divided. (If you don’t know about AeroLOPA - you’re welcome.)

In North America, United Airlines takes the top (and almost bottom) spot. The new 78L is a premium hauler offering 11 square feet per seat. Those who expected to see Delta rivaling Delta in the top two spots will be disappointed to see American sneak in with its outgoing 777-300ER configuration and the incoming 787-9 78P configuration. (Interestingly, American is backing away from the high-space-per-seat 77W configuration toward a technically denser config. In actuality, though, the transition from a separate first-class section to a larger business-class section is adding premium offerings, not reducing them.)

Another interesting point is just how well the 767 shows on this list. But before you get too excited for your 10.9 square feet of space on a 30-year-old 767, remember that it’s all just math. The 767 has the smallest cross-section of the widebodies and yet still requires two aisles. It may feel like extra space, but it’s not necessarily your extra space.

Plenty of other interesting comparisons appear; we’ll let you peruse the list. As we continue to build and test the long-term impact of this shift to premium, we’ll leave the following charts with you to compare.

Should aviation companies invest in employee education, or is the risk too high that they may leave for a competitor?

We spoke with David Chandler and Charles Duncan on the latest Time on Wing Podcast about the role of academia in continuing education for aviation professionals. On one hand, everybody wants the well-rounded candidate with ambitions to continue learning. On the other hand, they hire the siloed specialist, then balk at investing in career development opportunities not carefully curated within the company.

As expected, we all violently agreed during the podcast on the value of investing in your employees, but then again, we don't work at large companies trying to shield talent from competitors. Of course, both David and Charles are a part of the University of Colorado at Denver Executive MBA in Aviation - so we know how they value education.

Listen to the latest podcast here.

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