Recent news of an Air India 777 diverting to a Russian airport in Magadan has reignited the debate over Russian Airspace. According to Russia, their skies are closed to American airlines, but not those from India, China, or the Middle East. Merely one day after United CEO Scott Kirby mentioned the risk of an airplane diverting to Russia with U.S. citizens on board, an airplane diverted to Russia with U.S. citizens on board.

The flight from Delhi to San Francisco diverted to Magadan airport (north of Japan on the Sea of Okhotsk). The potential international incident was met with... well, hospitality and civility. As the ferry flight lands in San Francisco, questions now turn to repairing the 777 given sanctions on Russia. It will get fixed and the story will blow over.

But while we wait for this story to blow over, there remains a greater question at the heart of Russia. What happens when geopolitics and ESG collide?

U.S. and European carriers are excluded from Russian airspace for... reasons. Yet, flights continue with Western airlines navigating impressive detours around Russia, further adding carbon to the atmosphere. Air India still has access to Russian Airspace, so it is afforded the luxury of optimized flight planning techniques, otherwise known as "a straight line."

The direct comparison of two JFK-DEL flights, one by American AIrlines and one by Air India, shows just how much of an advantage Air India has with access to Russian Airspace. To put the estimated 15% fuel burn reduction Air India enjoys into carbon context, 15% represents the fuel improvements of the latest generation of aircraft.

In round 1 of ESG vs geopolitics, geopolitics wins.

Aircraft Intelligence Monthly published for June 2023

The June AIM is out, covering new trends that are being overlooked in the industry. The insights you read in this newsletter are often born from the AIM, just months earlier. For instance, today's analysis was published in April.

The June AIM dives into seven trends that show the greatest disconnect between market perception and the data. Here is a high level of what we discuss in the June AIM:

1. Traffic recovery now limited by Pacific / available capacity

2. Narrowbodies have another decade of strong demand

3. Fleet shift in freighter market into next generation

New in June, our subscribers also received our full chart library to use our charts in their own internal presentations.

If your organization wants to learn more about the AIM commercial subscription plans with our new chart library, you can learn more at this link.

If you were forwarded this email, score!

As valuable as it is, don't worry; it's entirely free. If you would like to receive analyses like this regularly, subscribe below.

Then...

You can pay it forward by sending it to your colleagues. They gain valuable insights, and you get credit for finding new ideas!

Win-win.