Where would you go to find a 737-9?

The new world is your best bet.

This week, a few charts reflect the news out of Portland involving an Alaska Airlines 737-9. Of the 737-9 operators in 2024, four are located in the Americas: Alaska Airlines, United Airlines, Aeromexico, and Copa Airlines. A fifth airline, Icelandair, also touches North America, leaving only Turkish Airlines, flydubai, Lion Air, and SCAT Airlines operating small fleets in the other regions of the world.

By and large, the 737-9 is an American aircraft. The top operators include United Airlines, Alaska Airlines, Copa Airlines, and Aeromexico. Speculative orders for lessors still number 45, and they are likely to find homes at many of the same operators.

The 737-9 is a relatively low-selling member of the 737 MAX family, particularly since the larger 737-10 has entered the certification process. Even so, the order book is dominated by the 737-8 to similar magnitudes as the 737-900ER was for the NG program.

The airframe of the 737-9 isn’t without its quirks (most recently, its quick-change ability to create an extra loading door without landing). Landing speeds are fast, airfield performance suffers, and the airplane has a tendency to tip on its tail during improper loading.

10/20-year Aircraft Forecast preview - shortages and oversupplies

COVID changed a few things. For instance, when was the supply chain mentioned in a 20-year forecast, let alone set as a restricting factor?

We’ve thrown out how we used to do long-term fleet forecasting from 2019 and are building a new fleet forecast from scratch. This one considers many of the new realities, including that supply will not always match demand.

This forecast is broken down by year, aircraft type, and region to offer a detailed look into what is expected to happen in which aircraft segment in which region. We are already working with clients on sensitivities. What if a downturn arrives in 2028? What if C919 production can ramp up? What if it can’t? What if the 737-10 is another year late or the 777X early?

The forecast is built into a 40+ page data-driven report and an Excel download of the model, both available to our full Visual Approach Research subscribers.

Expect to hear more next week. In the meantime, here is a sneak peek of a continuing trend expected to affect the global supply and demand for aircraft in the coming decades:

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