What if the large Middle East hubs just… stopped?

It was a silly notion just four weeks ago, and yet, here we are.

Some of the largest connecting hubs in the world are essentially not operating: DXB, AUH, and DOH. Emirates has been able to move some flights through its Dubai hub, though most inbound flights are empty while the outbound flights are selling at exorbitant rates. Rescue flights for those stuck, and exit opportunities for locals who don’t want to be there.

Even without the cancellations, the book-away is not hard to imagine. The largest of the connecting airports, Dubai, has been hit at least three times. Damage has been reported to two aircraft, including an Emirates A380 and a Saudia A321. Several injuries have also been reported among airport staff. Unless you’re going to Dubai, who is going to want to fly through Dubai?

Which begs the question, what does the industry lose without these large Middle East hubs?

A lot of capacity is the answer.

Consider the corridor the Middle Eastern hubs connect: Europe to Asia. The affected airports in the Middle East were responsible for 38% of the available seats in that market. This is not simply adding seats, either. We programatically built connections through all Middle East airports between Europe and Asia to understand just how many seat options were taken away for passengers.

Over one-third transit the affected Middle East hubs of DXB, AUH, DOH, BAH, or KWI.

To be fair, this also includes the seats that would have been sold to local passengers not connecting through the Middle East. Building connections as a measure of capacity is challenging, not because the connections don’t compete with nonstop capacity (they certainly do), but because one passenger takes two seats on a connecting flight. One inbound the hub, and one outbound. Either one of the two flights fills, and no more connections are available. So we took the lesser of the two capacities on each connecting option.

It should surprise nobody that flights between Europe and Asia that do not transit the Middle East are selling at a premium. In some instances, we found flights consistently six times more expensive than those that connected through any Middle East airport (including RUH, JED, etc).

This gives a great example of how capacity drives fares, albeit an exaggerated one. If you take 38% of the capacity out of a market with unchanged demand, fares don’t increase 38%. They increase by a factor of that number.

Dozens of Qatar Airways and Emirates widebodies are looking for storage options, as well. Many remain parked at airports around the world. And yet, the industry remains in a widebody shortage - an even worse one with those large fleets out of action.

But for the Middle East carriers, the problem is much worse than the current conflict. Even with the number of inbound attacks decreasing, they’re still happening. In a way, the smaller number of inbound attacks that occur less frequently creates a bigger problem for the airlines and passengers. How few attacks before it’s considered safe enough to fly aircraft? What exactly is “safe enough” during a war?

Even then, how long before connecting passengers once again consider these airports as transit options? For people in Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Bahrain, and Kuwait, the decision of whether to fly is different than for those looking for options that don’t include any of those cities.

The road for the Middle Eastern airlines will be long. But if COVID has taught us anything, it’s that the human species has a remarkably short memory. As time goes on without damage to the airports themselves, travelers will reconsider a Middle East connection for an 80% discount, then a 50% discount; you get the picture.

The question isn’t if the passengers will come back, it’s how long that takes, and how that fundamentally changes networks and passenger behavior in the future.

Our latest podcast showcases John Heimlich, VP and Chief Economist at A4A. It should be noted that this podcast was recorded before the attacks in the Middle East, and yet we still cover fuel prices and aviation policy.

You can listen to the podcast or watch it.

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