If you have a GTF-powered A320neo built prior to 2022, chances are it’s going to need an inspection.

The number of A320neo and A321neo aircraft that are out of service and awaiting inspection is starting to grow - and this is only the start. Stemming from a potentially faulty high-pressure turbine disk due to contaminated powdered metal, the wave of inspections is about to arrive.

Based on research we published last month and public statements from RTX, it could be up to 650 aircraft that could be on the ground in early 2024, waiting for inspection. The disk inspection is not terrible - about 8 hours in a soothing bath complete with laser exfoliation - but getting the part there is tough.

The high-pressure turbine disk just happens to be where the high-pressure things tend to be on an engine - right in the middle. That means disassembling the engine to get to the potentially faulty part prior to its laser bath. That takes time.

What’s worse, however, is that one does not simply open an engine, extract the part, put it all back together again, and then drive it out of the garage. If any extra wear or even small issues are found, they must be fixed. The same high-pressure section of the engine where this part exists is also the section that is most subject to wear and tear.

The technical term offered for this situation is: “no bueno.”

Worse yet is the replacement rate for the potentially faulty disk. RTX is proud to announce replacement rates will be low owing to the problem not being as bad as feared. Only, this is not necessarily good news for airlines.

If you’re going to park an airplane for up to 300 days to inspect a potentially faulty part, the last thing you want is that part going back in. Why? Because then it will need another inspection.

The math works as such: Up to 300 days not flying, the airplane returns for approximately 720 days of flying before it needs to be inspected again. See above for the challenges of opening an engine for inspection.

It’s not a great situation for anyone. Well, almost anyone.

For those airlines that weathered the 737MAX challenges, suddenly, a competitive advantage approaches. Imagine saying that three years ago.

Irony is alive and well in aviation.

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