By now, you’ve heard the news: People don’t want to visit the United States anymore. At least about 11% of non-Americans don’t, according to recent data published by the U.S. International Trade Association.

But then you hear strong earnings from both Delta and United, saying international bookings are still strong and growing from last year.

What’s going on? Is international traffic good or bad?

The answer is “both”, and where those international travelers start makes all the difference.

United announced a 5% increase in revenue per available seat mile (RASM) across the Atlantic. Delta saw an increase of 8%. But international visitors to the U.S. from Europe, The Middle East, and Africa were down 6% over the quarter. What gives?

Firstly, the 6% is an average over the three months compared to Q1 2024. It’s actually much worse than that. January was slightly up over 2024. February was down 1.6%. March?

Well, March was down 14.1%

Just in case you missed that: International visitors arriving at U.S. airports from Europe, the Middle East, and Africa were down 14.1% in March 2025 vs March 2024.

European visitors, alone, were down 17.4% in March.

But, back to our quarterly comparison: European visitors down. U.S. airlines up. What’s going on?

Point-of-sale. U.S. airlines sell roughly 80% of international tickets to Americans. Those passengers are still traveling - and paying more, as it turns out.

In short, the reactions over tariffs aren’t mutual. International visitors are clearly avoiding the U.S. in incredible numbers clearly timed with talk of tariffs, creating a 51st state, and annexing other countries’ territory. But Americans are still happy to visit.

At the same time, however, the U.S. dollar is becoming weaker, making travel to the U.S. cheaper for international visitors and international travel by Americans more expensive.

In that way, there is a sort of balance. As bad as things get within the U.S., that only makes it cheaper for foreign visitors while making it more expensive for Americans to travel abroad.

Our expectation is that the avoidance of travel to the U.S. due to political pushback is a 2025 phenomenon. As long as things calm down (big “if”), 2026 is not likely to see the same political travel pushback. That’s the good news.

The bad news is that the likely downturn to arrive the United States in the meantime (J.P. Morgan has odds at 60% for 2025) may be enough to keep 2026 from being any better. Along with a falling dollar comes economic hardship, at least given this unique setup. So, while it may be cheaper to visit the U.S. next year, travelers may not have the economic confidence to do so.

For now, having 80% of your international travelers consist of Americans who are not seeking to avoid other countries is a massive point-of-sale advantage.

Our latest research

Phil Seymour, President of IBA, on the Time on Wing podcast

This week, Phil Seymour of IBA joined us to talk about his path to 2025 (which started much earlier) and tariffs. You can listen to the podcast here: Phil Seymour - Time on Wing, or watch it on YouTube.

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