767: The Energizer widebody

767: The energizer widebody

The widebody is still a relatively new invention. With the introduction of the 747-100 in 1970, the era of passenger aircraft with two aisles is a mere 53 years old.

Yet, during that half-century-plus-three, platforms have risen and fallen relative to one another amid consistent growth. This week's work comes from an interactive visualization deep in development to show the competitive positioning of various widebody aircraft.

It's not done.

But fear not; you'll be the second to know when it's finished (right behind anybody who pays us money to see it first.)

However, an early conclusion has jumped out at us as we grow nostalgic, poring through data on aircraft such as the A310, MD-11, and IL-86. That conclusion: the longevity of the 767-300 platform is stunning.

Even as the 767 leaves passenger service and many of our direct interactions with the aircraft, it continues to operate in similar numbers as a freighter. Of course, the factory freighter variant remains in production today, adding to the population of 767 aircraft gracing the skies, but then, so does the 777-200 platform through the 777F.

What has given the 767-300 platform such staying power over even the venerable 777-200? To offer an oversimplified answer: the floor.

The 777-200 and 777-200ER variants, by far the greatest of the -200 platform built, all require reinforced floors to be able to carry the heavy payloads of the 777F (The 777-200LR comes with the strengthened floor, just without the numbers of aircraft required to make a dent on the char).

But the 767-300ER aircraft offers a natural conversion to a freighter, extending the model's life until its economic end-of-life - or until we stop demanding boxes. Whichever happens first.

Without an economic replacement option on the drawing board, the 767-300/300ER will likely continue flying for decades.

Remember that imminent recession? It’s still there, just imminent-er

The New York Federal Reserve likes to predict recessions. Using the yield curve as a barometer, the N.Y. Fed has assigned a 71% likelihood of a recession by next May.

What do we think about predicting the future of the world's most complex economy using simple yield curves?

Yeah, sounds about right to us.

It's hard to ignore the history of yield curves in predicting a recession. Regardless of the latest and greatest tea leaves, using the yield curve is still very good at predicting the next six to 12-month probability of a recession.

Of course, predicting a recession using yields is arguably circular reasoning since the yields move largely based on market sentiment anyway. Is the circle formed by the self-fulfilling prophecy of a market solving for its own projections?

Maybe.

Probably.

It doesn't matter.

What does matter to us is how this could affect commercial aviation. Our latest Aircraft Intelligence Monthly details some areas of concern we are seeing in the U.S. market for 2024, even before considering the big red spike on that chart.

Does that mean armageddon for aviation in 2024? No (mostly because after spring 2020, the phrase "armageddon for aviation" means something very different).

But it does mean changes. There is still room for economic retraction in aviation, but the U.S. is uniquely positioned for some... um... changes.

This is the type of edge we offer in the Aircraft Intelligence Monthly for our investor clients.

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