This week we offer a quick preview of the Forecast Breakfast tomorrow following the Cranky Network Awards.

Avid readers of our research will know how highly we think of revenue comparisons rather than traffic comparisons. Why? Because revenue management is a thing.

As we prepare to celebrate with the airlines at tonight’s Cranky Network Awards in Oakland this year, we are also planning the hangover-laden forecasting breakfast. Tomorrow, we will enjoy an early meal and discuss macro trends happening across the markets.

One of those key macro trends affecting U.S. airlines is U.S. travel. Naturally.

The bumpy recovery following COVID has been a wild ride for the U.S. carriers. Even as much capacity (and cash) was retained in the U.S. compared to the other parts of the world, the lead in recovery also meant the country’s domestic market took the lead in overshooting the recovery.

Now that we can once again consider inflation a thing, it requires us to consider any changes in revenues with the increased cost of… well… everything. While imperfect in the behavioral economic mind of Americans, inflation still gives us a key indicator of the relative cost of travel over time.

What does this tell us? Inflation did a thing, yes, but we’re most interested in when inflation-adjusted revenues crossed capacity.

This event actually happened in 2022, driven by still-low capacity and - what we in the business refer to as - stupid high fares.

2023 progressed with increased domestic capacity focused on few leisure markets while the revenue recovery stabilized. But capacity continued to arrive.

Then Q3 happened.

Practicing the art of not taking ourselves too seriously

We do serious things for serious people.

Just not tonight.

Tonight, we are practicing the art of not taking ourselves too seriously. The 2024 Cranky Network Awards will take place at the Oakland Scottish Rite Center this evening.

Together with Brett Snyder of Cranky Flier, this will be our fourth annual ceremony celebrating the airline network teams from across North America. Awards will be announced, drinks will be consumed, jokes will be told, and drinks will be consumed.

We work with these airlines every week to understand the nuances of the networks they are building. The vicious competitive fights, tit-for-tat schedule increases, and fleet deployments all culminate on one evening, recognizing the airlines for the stress and gray hairs they have provided us during 2023.

Tonight is the big night, and the team is hard at work preparing. While the night is filled with laughter and applause for the aviation industry, the work to prepare has been continuous.

This is our third live event (four, including a 2021 virtual event). It reflects my personal response to early criticism that, as a business owner, I should only be seen in strictly professional settings.

The jury is still out.

We made the decision early that we would be the best at what we do and not take ourselves too seriously. The two are not at odds with one another.

If our mission is to be transparent and authentic, we cannot accomplish that without humor. So we lean into it.

I don’t want to downplay how important that decision has been in the formation and growth of Visual Approach Analytics.

We do serious things for serious people.

Just not tonight.

You should do a chart on…

We like to create valuable charts. But, it’s not easy coming up with new ideas amid the endless hours delivering data-driven edge to our customers. In our quest to provide a valuable weekly newsletter we can keep guessing what you find most valuable, or you could just tell us.

If you have an idea for data visualization, reply to this email and let us know what analysis you’d find most valuable. We’d love to hear from you and will happily name-drop.

If you were forwarded this email, score!

As valuable as it is, don't worry; it's entirely free. If you would like to receive analyses like this regularly, subscribe below.

Then...

You can pay it forward by sending it to your colleagues. They gain valuable insights, and you get credit for finding new ideas!

Win-win!

Subscribe here