The markets should be several degrees removed from aviation.

Should be.

Of course, there is the correlation between GDP and travel demand. Taking it one step further, two consecutive quarters of negative GDP officially signals a recession, so that’s bad for air travel. Of course, the contracting economic output also triggers the markets to manage risk, with higher-risk equities retreating to low-risk bonds. You get the idea - the economic dog wags the market tail.

Only, what happens when the tail starts wagging the dog?

We are living in funny times. The market is shrugging off negative economic news, and yet air travel seems to care little for a widening K (there are good reasons for this we will cover in Copenhagen).

But, in recent history, the air travel market has shrugged off good economic data, reacting instead to bad market data. You know, the two “effect” parts of the cause-effect relationship.

So a diverging bond market suggesting higher economic risk should definitely raise some eyebrows. Especially when the equity markets have been blamed for not seeing the AI bubble of their own creation because they’re too close to see it. I’m reminded of the Catch-22 character Appleby who can’t see the flies in his eyes - because he has flies in his eyes.

It’s rock-solid reasoning. Naturally.

(If you haven’t read Catch-22, it might be a good time to pick up the classic.)

And so the market continues to flash contradictory signs, this time with a travel market showing much more reaction to the stock market than to the economy. It’s good to be on the top leg of the K, until it’s not.

You may have noticed a reference in last week’s newsletter to the Faroe Islands that should have been the Falkland Islands. I mentioned the whole of Latin America from Mexico to the Faroe Islands, so yeah, oops.

But hear me out: I had good reason to make the mistake. For I was looking for an excuse - any excuse - to mention an amazing video on the history of the Faroe Islands I had recently watched. Faroe on the brain, as they say.

So for that mistake, I offer mea culpa: the video that so enraptured me that I acci-purposely referred to the Faroe Islands rather than the Falkland Islands.

Our latest podcast welcomes Charles Graham of K2 Aviation, ASL Airlines, and FlySafair to discuss his path through aviation and how his experience has focused on the air cargo market.

I did not know Charles before the podcast (though, it turns out I worked in his group for a time at DHL). Gueric Dechavanne talked me into co-hosting this podcast four years ago, and it continues to introduce me to some of the most experienced and interesting people in the industry.

Of course, it's recorded in both audio and video. That means you get to not only hear the stories of the industry's leaders, but also see the faces and reactions. You have a built-in introduction line to introduce yourself at the next conference: "Saw you on the Time on Wing Podcast. Great job."

Now go listen to Charles offer 90 minutes of air cargo masterclass.

You can listen to the podcast here,

or watch it here.

I'm very proud to have been asked to provide the market update for ISTAT EMEA in Copenhagen this year. As I sat down to prepare, the task at hand quickly became apparent.

It's a strange time in aviation. The data is flashing contradictory signs.

This calls for a very different type of conference presentation.

What better way to find the right answers for tomorrow than to look at the wrong answers from yesterday?

What has history taught us about the times when the data told us one thing, but the market did another?

What did we collectively see?

What did we collectively do?

What will we do today?

What risks are we underestimating?

And most importantly, what does it mean for tomorrow?

This will be a journey of being wrong and of appreciating the greatest variable of all - time.

So eat your lunch, then be ready to think differently about the market in the main ballroom right after.

I can't promise you'll agree with the conclusions, but I can promise they'll be different.

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