United is at it again. Another 110 aircraft are on the way, bringing the airline’s order book to 740 commitments (over 780 if you count the A350 order).

For reference, the 740 firm commitments will be destined for a fleet currently sized at 918 aircraft, according to ch-aviation. Does that mean United will soon be over 1,600 aircraft?

Of course not.

But, a lot of United’s aircraft are… um… well-experienced. How well experienced? Some aircraft are over 30 years in age, and the majority is rapidly approaching.

This raises the inevitable next question: how many of United’s new aircraft commitments are slated for replacement, and what could be growth?

To analyze this, we made the 30-year-old assumption that United will retire aircraft when they hit their 30th birthday. To be certain, aircraft tend to retire based more closely on cycles and hours, timed by coming expensive maintenance events. However, for the sake of this analysis, we are assuming 30 years, and then the airplane turns into a pumpkin (it becomes unusable as a carriage of people, for those missing the Cinderella reference).

Based on this 30-year retirement cycle, United will grow in seats by 23%, but the bulk of the new aircraft will be replacement.

Considering the demographics of United’s fleet, there is another upcoming retirement cycle to replace aircraft built between 1997 and 2002. That wave of new aircraft at the turn of the century was made separately through commitments at United and Continental Airlines, now one. It was also committed to just before a massive industry downturn in 2001, leading to few new aircraft being delivered in the following decade - particularly widebodies.

This wave of aircraft will reach the age of 30 between 2027 and 2032, coinciding with a renewed wave of aircraft deliveries. Considering this retirement cycle, mainline seats will grow 23% by 2028, a reasonable number considering regional aircraft retirements during this period.

Of course, not all aircraft will retire promptly at age 30. As a fleet type is reduced in number, at some point, United will decide to retire the rest. Over the next 12 years, the airline will likely see five fleets retire: A319, A320, 757-200, 767-300ER, and 777-200/ER. Notably, adjacent to those retiring fleets of 757, 767, and 777 aircraft are smaller fleets of much younger variants, the 757-300 (21), 767-400ER (16), and 777-300ER (22), all 23 years or younger.

To simulate the sensitivity of early retirements, we also considered an accelerated timeframe of 27.5 years. United currently has approximately 70 aircraft that exceed the younger assumed retirement age, but growth still exists in this accelerated scenario.

Why does this matter? United can manage overall capacity by accelerating retirements if needed. Twelve years is a long time and will undoubtedly encompass one downturn, probably two. Rather than adjust delivery timing (flexibility certainly available to some extent), United can retire aircraft only a year or two early and achieve significant capacity reductions. Again; if needed.

Latest Visual Approach Research:

Our recent research has been published focusing on falling fares in the U.S. domestic market this autumn. Disproportionately affecting the domestic-focused airlines, we explore the data around why the fares are under pressure and uncover data that suggests the international markets won’t be the savior for much longer.

The full report can be accessed by Market Insights and Visual Approach Research subscribers. You can also purchase the PDF individually.

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