After a month of wild estimates ranging from flat to down 80%, the final numbers from Statistics Canada show Canadian travel to the U.S. in April was down 20% year-over-year.

The good news: It wasn’t down 80%.

The bad news: 20% is still bad, and it’s getting worse.

April numbers show that only four-fifths of the number of Canadian residents returning from the U.S. at Canadian airports in April 2024 are doing so in April 2025. Statistics Canada further breaks down the numbers to show where the drops have been.

Toronto has seen the greatest drop in both overall numbers of travelers to the U.S., as well as percentage drop. At the same time, the highest shift of passengers to international destinations also happened in Toronto.

The renewed shift away from travel to the U.S. in April has now officially wiped out the peak season. Little spring travel boost remains in May, leaving the remainder of the year as the lower half.

While the loss in peak travel has certainly frustrated Canadian airlines and U.S. tourism, the arrival of peak summer domestic travel comes as a welcome sign for the airlines. In a weird way, the silver lining of ending a peak season without a peak is knowing it will be another seven months before the damage to peak travel can be felt again.

Small wins.

But, even as Canadians avoid the U.S., they have shifted to other international destinations, particularly those in warm climates. Overall, international Canadian travelers were up 10%, on a higher base this spring.

But, back to the 20% is not 80% optimism. 20% is still bad. In fact, 20% would represent the greatest downturn in travel outside of COVID. While our perceptions have all been skewed by the last truly black swan of the pandemic, it’s important to maintain context for just how bad the situation is.

Keep in mind, also, that even though local tourism hotspots can replace the lost Canadian visitor by some measure, it is very likely at cheaper rates and lower overall revenues. In short, they must discount to replace the demand from Canadians now overflying to destinations beyond the U.S.

May number should be out early in June; however, they matter little through the remainder of the year. The peak season has been lost.

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