Spring has arrived, but the Canadian travelers have not. At least not all of them.

It should come as no surprise to anybody that leisure travel is being hit hardest by Canadians considering travel to the U.S. If you’ve been following our work, you’ll recognize the other word we use for leisure—discretionary.

Our comparison this week comes suggested by a subscriber. It looks at April scheduled seats between Canada and the U.S. by the Canadian airlines and where the cuts are.

Florida. It’s Florida.

Indeed, it is the leisure destinations in the United States seeing the greatest reductions in capacity from Canadian airlines. Florida, in particular, is experiencing drastic cuts across the board. Fort Myers and Palm Beach are down 30% and 43%, respectively, compared to April schedules as they existed on January 1, 2025.

However, Hawaii offers an interesting contrast, with capacity not seeing any cuts to HNL, LIH, KOA, or OGG. While still a few departing seats from the start, the 50th state appears to be a bit too far for Canadians to consider changing spring travel plans at the last moment.

Similarly, hub and business markets have fared much better. While Newark is down 7%, San Francisco is only down 2%, and Boston is flat. Seattle and Detroit appear to be the only exceptions for partner hub airline reductions, both down by double digits.

But consider that airlines cutting seats to destination markets almost certainly means traffic is down even further. The effects of reduced travel by Canadians has impacts reaching far further than the airlines themselves - particularly for an industry such as Florida, where hotels, restaurants, and entertainment venues have long looked forward to those arrivals from the Great White North. Anecdotal reports from some of those institutions suggest the drop in leisure travel is closer to 30% than 10%.

Canadian travel to the U.S. is currently in its peak season, with Canadians more likely to choose domestic destinations or European destinations in the summer. Regardless of the results of any tariff deals this year, it will be 2026 before any concerted recovery can be made to the overall market.

Such is the sting of conflict between such large trading allies. The impacts are felt very quickly, but the recovery takes significantly longer. Especially for those considering the United States as a way to escape the cold, hard winter: It will take another cold, hard winter before we know how long lasting this could be.

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