This is the story of the not-so-narrowbody and the not-so-widebody. What is happening to the typical size of a commercial airplane?

Larger narrowbodies

It is no surprise that aircraft gauges have been increasing over the past decade. Simply following the development trajectory of the 737, sporting fewer than 100 seats in the original configuration, it has gradually increased its size over the decades. Soon, the MAX 10 will seat twice that number.

The same has been true of Airbus narrowbodies. Aircraft delivering today are largely 180-seat A321neos, but you’re much more likely to find a 125-seat A319 retiring.

This trend is not new; however, COVID has greatly accelerated it. This week's analysis looks at the top 50 airlines by ASKs in 2023 and how their average seat gauge has changed.

It’s gone up. Mostly.

Narrowbody airlines have seen their average seat gauges increase drastically. The all-737 airlines Southwest Airlines? Up 5.2% since 2019.

The big three in the U.S.? Delta is up 12%, American is flying aircraft an average of 14.5% larger, and United has increased the size of the typical aircraft in its fleet by over 19%.

Topping the list, however, are Avianca and Air Canada. Two flag carriers seeing over 20% increases in average seat gauge.

Regional connectivity

Remember regional aircraft? The fleets we all loved to hate but never took the time to realize why we happened to be on them. Many of those are going away, along with the connectivity they brought.

This has been the case in the U.S. to the most drastic effects. However, Air Canada and Avianca have also seen their average seat gauge increase partly from a reduction in regional aircraft.

Air Canada has slowly retired its small turboprops, connecting many small Canadian communities. Meanwhile, Avianca has almost entirely shifted away from being a network carrier to being a low-cost carrier.

Widebody (A380) retirements

On the opposite end of the spectrum lies the A380. Drastically down in numbers since the pandemic, the A380 represents the largest of the commercial fleet. Unfortunately, it also represented the largest of the commercial fleet at a time when international travel was on life support.

The increase in seat gauges has not been ubiquitous across the fleet in the past four years. Twelve of the top 50 airlines have seen a decrease in average aircraft size since 2019. Yet, the common denominator across each has been a reduction in ultra-large widebodies, particularly the A380.

JAL stands out as an exception. While the airline never operated the A380, it did retire a large number of widebody aircraft since 2019, including the 767-300 and 777-200 fleet, as well as a good portion of the 777-300 fleet.

Another exception is Emirates. The world’s largest operator of A380s leading into the pandemic, the Dubai-based airline is still the largest operator of A380s. However, Emirates has put the aircraft back to work, at the same time parking smaller 777-300ER aircraft to maintain a fairly consistent gauge.

Yet, the difference in seat changes across airlines is clear. Airlines largely reliant on narrowbodies and regional aircraft have seen a large increase in the average size of aircraft. Those reliant on widebody aircraft are much more likely to have experienced a reduction.

What we see

As interesting as the past four years as been, we’re far more interested in what this means for the future. The move has been largely applauded in highly connected networks with sharply increasing seat gauges. Seat costs have come down, allowing more passengers to be moved for lower costs.

The flip side, however, is that connectivity has fallen. While the global population is still increasing, airlines are further limiting their available population to large cities.

Further challenging the years ahead are the cost savings that were traded for reduced connectivity. Much of those savings have already been spent, particularly in the United States, where pilot pay has increased by as much as 50%.

The cycle repeateth.

Meanwhile, the reduction of widebody aircraft size is likely a one-off specific to the A380. With the 777-300ER out of production, the industry finds itself in a gap before the 777X arrives in 2025.

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