airBaltic filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. last week, a move that was a surprise in venue only. The airline had already publicly begun restructuring discussions with creditors, and through that process expressed an interest in removing 18 of its 54 A220s, expecting to end 2026 with a fleet of 36 aircraft.

For the A220, this presents several challenges. First, the obvious challenge is the program’s ability to support the remarketing of 18 aircraft through various lessors. We’re not worried.

Over 540 A220s have already been delivered, creating a base of 23 operators, with another six committed and awaiting deliveries. While that may pale in the context of the A320 and 737 families, it’s an historically strong number, particularly when considering the names on the list. The 18 aircraft will find homes.

Our attention is more focused on the backlog and how the term “firm commitments” will apply going forward.

Aside from the 18 aircraft exiting airBaltic, we’re more concerned with the 40 A220-300s airBaltic has on order but has communicated public plans that do not include most of those aircraft. With a long-term plan of 40 aircraft, that puts at least 36 of the order book as “committed” but without homes.

We expect airBaltic and Airbus to announce a deferral of the orders out to 2030-whenever rather than cancel the order. Technically, they’d still be firm(ish) orders, but technically ketchup is a fruit smoothie. So… yeah. I’m not saying airBaltic wouldn’t eventually see the light and throw a straw down the Heinz bottle, but it seems unlikely.

Still, aircraft orders sitting in the perpetual deferred state are nothing new. There are plenty of things to use a purchase agreement as leverage to negotiate in the future. But even the 40 (or 36) orders out of a 568-aircraft backlog aren’t the problem. It’s more the massive chunk of 150 commitments that grabs our attention.

Slow grumbles of challenges at AirAsia are cropping up again. For the record, these aren’t new, and the airline continues to airline, which is not insignificant.

As published in our monthly research this week, we don’t think AirAsia is at risk of any near-term in-court restructuring. Rumors are flying of the Malaysian government asking other airlines how they could immediately backfill AirAsia capacity (news flash: they can’t). This doesn’t mean the rumors of questions are false, just that they were probably just that - questions - rather than any immediate action or concern. You can imagine how tight-lipped other airlines would be that a government was asking about contingency plans for a hypothetically failed competitor - Like dandelion seeds in a leaf blower.

So, the rumors of questions from the government don’t concern us much. The delinquency in payment does, though, especially considering the fuel spikes and the airline’s inability to cover fixed costs amid those spikes. Even then, stories of AirAsia being selective with who gets paid are not exactly new - and things have always worked out. We’re not worried about a sudden collapse or shotgun filing, but on the priority list of an airline that is triaging cash, a 500-aircraft deep orderbook feels a bit rich (for context, the airline group currently operates a fleet of about 175 aircraft).

Roughly 350 of those orders are for A321neos, which already represents a sharp increase in capacity from the A320ceos they’re replacing. The other 150 are the aforementioned A220-300s. That is a lot of lift inbound for an airline not currently paying its bills.

Again, we don’t see any need for a rush on the airline. Like we said earlier: this isn’t new for AirAsia, and the airline always works things out with its vendors. It even creates new opportunities for creative thinkers. But from the A220 perspective, we have to believe the aircraft would fall to the bottom of the priority list at a time when there isn’t enough cash to go around for the existing stuff.

Normally, we wouldn’t think much about future order commitments for an airline struggling amid fuel spikes today. But between airBaltic and AirAsia, the two airlines account for one-third of the A220 backlog. It’s not the 18 aircraft that will likely be looking for homes we worry about; it’s the 190 that are supposed to be coming down the production line to airlines either with no plans for them, or with difficulty paying for the stuff that already exists. That’s what piques our interest in September 2026.

It's THE question in 2026: will aircraft deliveries finally make up for lost supply, or will demand come down to fill the gap?

The latest Time on Wing podcast includes a discussion on the long-term direction of the industry. If you miss Rob’s market updates at the aviation conferences, consider this his 2026 update - with a few side quests.

We talk with Rob about sustainability, aircraft demand, new aircraft programs, and quite a bit more.

The podcast is available in audio or video format, whichever your pleasure:

Audio: Time on Wing Podcast

Video: YouTube

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