December is always a top month for aircraft deliveries. As OEMs push out aircraft to receive cash on the books prior to the year-end close, the number of aircraft that change hands at the OEMS always spikes around the holidays.

Regardless of the end-of-year push, narrowbody production will end the year below 2023.

We’ve been building this chart for nearly four years, showcasing the shortfall in narrowbody production. This recent version was published in our most recent Visual Approach Research and showcases the type of unique analyses that it delivers. Normally, this type of intelligence is only a part of our premium research.

If your organization does not subscribe, you should probably know that your competitors likely do. (And yes, building FOMO is an effective sales strategy. Based on how busy we are, it’s also our only sales strategy. End commercial - but seriously, you should consider a subscription to our research library.)

In 2021, we published the first version of this chart, dubbed by someone else as the “shark tooth” chart. There have been multiple updates, reflecting the slower production ramp. But it was 2024 that officially changed the “shark tooth” chart to the new “shark teeth” chart.

Why? Because 2024 was a step back in narrowbody production.

2023 ended with the promise of continued production increases. 2024 arrived with a January door plug blowout.

Boeing’s challenges ramping 737 MAX production were dealt a further blow in the fall when the IAM went on a 53-day strike. While deliveries of already-built 737s continued to trickle out, production stopped.

However, Airbus has had challenges of its own. Overall, supply chain constraints have left Airbus looking at a flat level of deliveries over 2023, at best.

So what does this mean?

It means the shortfall of production from the plan only grew in 2024. It has led to record backlogs, stretching beyond a decade in some cases, and creating a new type of dynamic for airlines considering massive capital commitments for aircraft. With backlogs stretching into the 2030s, it is very likely that aircraft ordered today by airlines will not be delivered until after the current economic cycle.

Does this mean the aircraft shortage just got worse?

Not really.

If the strategic landscape of 2025 will be defined by anything, it is in those last two sentences. It’s also the focus of our research heading into the next year. How can reduced production during a shortage not extend the shortage?

The industry has entered a firmly post-COVID era. It’s different from the COVID era of the last five years, but not the same as the pre-COVID era before. What assumptions no longer apply, and which have already reverted?

2025 is going to be interesting.

Our latest research

You should do a chart on…

We like to create valuable charts. But, it’s not easy coming up with new ideas amid the endless hours delivering data-driven edge to our customers. In our quest to provide a valuable weekly newsletter we can keep guessing what you find most valuable, or you could just tell us.

If you have an idea for data visualization, reply to this email and let us know what analysis you’d find most valuable. We’d love to hear from you and will happily name-drop.

If you were forwarded this email, score!

As valuable as it is, don't worry; it's entirely free. If you would like to receive analyses like this regularly, subscribe below.

Then...

You can pay it forward by sending it to your colleagues. They gain valuable insights, and you get credit for finding new ideas!

Win-win!

Subscribe here