Today, I speak at the ATRIF fall meeting about the impacts of Boeing and GTF on the commercial aircraft fleet.

What does ATRIF stand for, you ask?

Nobody knows.

(Actually, anybody with access to Google knows since it’s the first thing on their webpage.) Air Transportation Research International Forum. Smart people in a small room with excess coffee. You get the idea.

As part of the 30-page deck and growing, we look at the narrowbody production race and where we stand as of November 2024.

As expected, Boeing is down on 737 MAX deliveries compared to 2023 and 2022. No surprise, considering 2024 consisted of a certain door plug incident, a 38-aircraft production cap, and a strike halting production.

But, two things jump out at us from this simple comparison:

1. Airbus isn’t doing so hot

2. Boeing isn’t catastrophic

Bear in mind, of course, that Boeing’s delivery challenges will continue for quite some time - well into 2025, at least. The aircraft delivering in the coming months will rely on the supply chain that was again halted in the prior months.

Then there is that pesky 38-aircraft production limit.

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